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Real Estate Situation

The property investment strategy in 2025

 

Damon Ho

16th November 2024
After Trump was elected as the new president of the United States, his speeches and actions have a significant impact on international affairs and the economies of China and Hong Kong. How he implements his commitments that he made during the period of election. We are eager to see his performance after he takes up office on January 20, 2025.
If a landlord is not optimistic about the economic prospects, it is essential to sell his or her property before the end of the year. As users or investors, it is not recommended that any of them enter the market at present to avoid the impact of Trump's additional 60% tariffs to impose on Chinese products to cause negative effects to the property market.
If Trump does not add tariffs as promised, users or investors can consider purchasing properties as they wish, and if the new tariffs are implemented, it will have an impact on the property market. The potential buyers should observe the market reaction one more quarter to decide whether they should enter the market.
If Trump raises tariffs by more than 40 to 60 percent as scheduled, property prices will fall by 30 percent, if the tariffs are increased by 20 to 40 percent, the price will drop by 20 percent, and if the additional tariffs are less than 20 percent, the property price will decrease by less than 10 percent.
When Trump won the election, the Renminbi against the US dollar has been falling, and the accumulated decline has been up to approximately 3% since the start of this month. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index has dropped below the critical level of 20,000 points. The performance of the markets has held a vote of no confidence in the current situation.   
At present, the problems faced by the property market have shifted from being affected by microeconomics factors such as population, interest rates, unemployment rates and business cycles to being dominated by macroeconomics factors. Today, the political and economic relationship between China and the United States is the most crucial factor governing the property market in Hong Kong.
As a group of outspoken commentators with agency background, their comments are inclined to defend their interests by providing biased opinions. In order to create a better atmosphere for selling, their comments only focus on the benefits of interest rate cuts or the best-selling first-hand properties with big discounts so that they can persuade low-confident buyers to enter the market. As an ordinary buyer, they must keep calm to analyze the related issue so that they could avoid being trapped.
 
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1. Renovating subdivided units cut flats supply, 2024-11-16 19:21:35

Hong Kong’s plan to phase out subdivided flats under 8 square metres to improve the living conditions of poor families could drive rents higher, defeating the policy purpose, according to property analysts.

“Some landlords may find it financially challenging to upgrade their units to meet the new standards, and it will potentially lead to higher rents,”  Rosanna Tang, executive director and head of research for Hong Kong at Cushman & Wakefield, told Hong Kong Business.

Renovating subdivided units under 8 square metres would also potentially cut the market’s flat supply, which could push rents up in the near term, she added.

2. Home prices should stabilise next year 2024-11-18 14:23:13

Hong Kong will have high housing inventories and will likely focus on destocking in the coming years, according to S&P Global Ratings.

"Developers will face further margin pressure because they will be booking residential projects acquired back when land prices were higher,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Edward Chan.

The weighted average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation margin could edge down further to 34.9% by their fiscal year 2026.

Home prices should stabilise next year after losing nearly 30% from a 2021 peak. S&P also forecasts primary sales to reach 20,000 units in 2025.